Over/Under Win Totals

We are going to take a look at the over/under bets for season wins. These totals are for regular season games only so do not count the SEC Championship game or the bowl games. As always the most important factor for this bet is schedule, schedule, schedule.

South Carolina – Over/Under 7 wins – Wins – Southern Miss, Furman, Troy, @Vandy, @Kentucky – Losses – @Florida, Alabama

This looks like a solid bet. We start off 5-2 with 5 games remaining on the schedule that could go either way. Home games versus Georgia, Tennessee, and Arkansas are all winnable, as are the road games at Auburn and at Clemson to end the season. I think they lose to Georgia, but defeat both Tennessee and Clemson to give us at least a push on this bet. They only have to win one of the two games against Arkansas and Auburn to win the bet and I say they do. Take the over on South Carolina (-120), but make sure you shop for lines because I have seen them at 7.5 in some places. My simulations put them at 8.4 so I think they have this bet won going into the season finale with Clemson but always make sure to get the best odds you can.

LSU – Over/Under 8 wins – Wins – @Vanderbilt, Miss State, McNeese State, ULM, Ole Miss – Losses – @Florida, Alabama

So we have them at 5-2 with 5 games left, same as South Carolina. I feel somewhat confident about the opener with North Carolina and Tennessee. It comes to if they can win a few from the trio of West Virginia, @Auburn, and @ Arkansas and I definitely don’t like them to win 2 of those 3. This line seems to be pretty spot on at 8 and if I had to lean one direction I would actually take the under. But I would say this one is a stay away.

Auburn – Over/Under 8.5 wins – Wins – Arkansas State, @MSU, ULM, @ Kentucky, @ Ole Miss, Chattanooga – Losses – @Alabama

This one gets interesting because Auburn avoids Florida on the schedule so we have them at 6-1 with 5 games remaining. The games that could go either way include Clemson, USC, Arkansas, LSU, and Georgia at home. Amazingly all of the games are at Jordan-Hare stadium. This one is another stay away because it is too close for comfort but I am definitely leaning over on this one. Any time a team has 8 home games and 4 away games you have to think they will have a pretty good year.

Arkansas – Over/Under 8.5 wins – Wins – Tenn Tech, ULM, Ole Miss, Vandy, UTEP, @ MSU – Losses – Alabama

Arkansas  has their 6 “easy” wins which means they have to win 3 out of 5 of the other games to go over. I like Georgia to beat them in Sanford Stadium but I like Arkansas to win @ Texas A&M and @ Auburn. So it comes down to having to win agianst either South Carolina or LSU and I think Arkansas has that ability. Once again stay away but lean over.

Georgia – Over/Under 8.5 wins – Wins – Louisiana, @ MSU, Vandy, @ Kentucky, Idaho State – Losses – Florida

I like Georgia to go over here. I like them at South Carolina and Auburn and versus Tennessee and Georgia Tech. That puts them at 10 wins, so even if they don’t come through on one we still finish ahead. In fact I am almost not ready to pencil in Florida as a loss for this team. They will be a contender. Take UGA and the over.

Alabama/Florida – Over/Under 10 wins. These two teams are both in the exact situation. They are heavy favorites to run the table. They face no tough out of conference opponents. The only real worry is that they have to play each other. My advice is to take the over on whichever team you think is going to win the head to head match up. It seems to me that both teams get to 10 so I lean over on both.

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