BCS Championship Odds: Another Way to Lose Money

As you may have guessed by now, Bourbonmeyer.com has several degenerate gamblers on our team.  Considering that every other article has some mention of a point spread or an over/under we should probably consider changing the format of our site to a handicapping forum instead of Gator sports.  Having intimate knowledge of our combined bank rolls I can confidently say that if we changed our format we would have some guy named Fat Tony hunting us down with his blunt object of choice within the week.

While fishing for lines for tonight’s basketball games on Bodog.com (smart money is on Yale +11.5 at Harvard) I found that the odds for next year’s Super Bowl and BCS Champion are posted.  Since we are probably not going to see pro football again until 2015, I skipped directly to the BCS odds.  I have taken the liberty weeding out anyone above 50/1 with the exception of SEC schools (I have an obvious bias).  Without further ado:

Oklahoma   7/2
Alabama  15/2
Florida State  10/1
Boise State  12/1
LSU 12/1
Oregon   12/1
Field 12/1
Nebraska  18/1
Ohio State  18/1
Texas 20/1
Stanford 22/1
TCU  25/1
Penn State   28/1
Arkansas  30/1
Notre Dame   30/1
Oklahoma State 30/1
Wisconsin 30/1
Virginia Tech  35/1
Texas A&M 40/1
Georgia 50/1
Mississippi 50/1
Mississippi State 50/1
South Carolina   50/1
Auburn   70/1
Tennessee 125/1

The first thing that jumps out at me is Texas at 20/1.  Texas!!!!  The team
that didn’t even make it to a bowl game last year has better odds to win a National Championship than 7 of the 8 BCS bowl teams from last year.  AND they lost their
defensive coordinator.  I don’t get this at all.  Texas lost 5 games at home, three of which were to UCLA, Iowa State and Baylor.  I guess the guys out in the desert know something that the rest of the country doesn’t.

Florida State had a great year last year, but I still think 10/1 is still pretty damn high for them.  They had a few big wins last season, but they also lost to NC State, North Carolina and got smoked by Virginia Tech in the ACC championship game.  They’re losing Christian Ponder and Rodney Hudson on offense.  Ponder was up and down all season, but EJ Manuel will still need to come into his own as the starter.

Texas A&M played really well down the stretch last year (with the exception of the shellacking that LSU gave them in the Cotton Bowl), but they are losing Von Miller on Defense as well as Jerrod Johnson on Offense.  However, Ryan Tannehill will be back next year to lead the offense after winning 6 of the last 7 games of 2010. I don’t think Texas A&M is going to win it all, but I’d certainly give them a better chance than 40/1 (again, Texas is at 20/1).

According to The Franchise, Ohio State is a steal at 18/1.  The pending suspension of several key offensive players is big, but I think that we will hear from the NCAA regarding a reduced penalty for these young men over the summer.  I, for one, will be very interested to see a how this line changes if/when the suspensions are reduced.  Look for Prior and the gang to be back on the field by conference play (if not sooner) in the fall.

The SEC is rather interesting in my opinion.  Vanderbilt and Kentucky didn’t make it on the board (odds higher than 150/1).  Not surprising considering they were a combined 8-17 last year.  Tennessee is listed at 150/1, so they may as well not be listed as well.

Arkansas is way too high at 30/1 after losing Ryan Mallett, DJ Williams, Joe Adams and half of the offensive line to the draft.  They have a great young running back in Knile Davis, but I think they go back to being one-dimensional without the big arm at QB.

Apparently Auburn is going to be shitty without Mr. Newton.  At 70/1, there aren’t too many people that believe the Tigers are going to make a back-to-back run at the national championship.  Auburn has a total of 17 players in the NFL draft, including Nick Fairley (projected as second overall by some prognosticators) and Cam Newton.  Look for Auburn to rebuild next year and not even get a whiff of the trophy.

Georgia, Mississippi State, Mississippi and South Carolina are all at 50/1.  I’m a little surprised that South Carolina is listed this low by the odds makers.  They didn’t exactly light up the scoreboard in a lot of games last year, but they did win the SEC east and are returning most of their offense next year.

LSU and Alabama top the list of SEC hopefuls at 12/1 and 15/2 respectively.  Alabama is losing Mark Ingram, Julio Jones and Greg McElroy, all of which account for a large part of their offense.  Trent Richardson returns next year and I’m sure that Saban will have McCarron ready to go.  LSU hasn’t lost a ton of talent to the draft.  Unfortunately, Les Miles used all of his karmic wins last year.  The Tennessee game alone has him out of the National Championship running for several years.

Finally, we come to our beloved Gators. At 15/1, Florida’s odds are pretty damn high considering the regime change we’ve seen over the past few weeks.  So many things are up in the air with the Gators, I’m surprised that they are not at 30/1 with the Hogs 50/1 with the rest of the SEC teams.  We’ve got players potentially shifting positions (Trey Burton and Jordan Reed are two prime examples), lots of loss on the offensive line (four starters are gone) and a quarterback that was beaten down by the expectations of the Gator Nation and the spread offense.  I’m told that Weis’s pro style offense might be a better fit for Brantley, but I was also told he would be a stud in Meyer’s spread.  Until I see him  actually step up in the pocket and throw a pass, my money will not be placed the 15/1 Gators.

So there you have it.  If you’re into betting on futures there’s quite a bit of opportunity in this year’s pool of candidates.  Unfortunately, my money is currently tied up in other ventures.  If it works out, I might be able place a dollar or two on a few teams to win the championship next year.  If it doesn’t work out, I might need crutches for 6-8 weeks.

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