Miss State 7.5
Looking at these lines and the schedule I really like Alabama over 10. They will be favored in all 12 games next season. Their toughest games of the year are Arkansas at home, at Florida the following week, and LSU at home after a bye. They would have to drop all three of those games for this to go under so I like them to push the bet at worst. Shop around because you may have to pay some juice to get this number. My book currently has it at -115 which is about right. You don’t wanna pay more than -125 on this one.
I also like Kentucky over 6. They have 7 home games, 4 road games, and a neutral site game against Western Kentucky. Any time you only have to go on the road 4 times in a season good things can happen (see Auburn 2010). I like them to take care of business against Western Kentucky, Central Michigan, and Jacksonville State. I’m going to favor them at Vandy and at home against Ole Miss and Louisville. Then they only need to win one of their home games against mediocre SEC schools Florida, Tennessee, or Miss State. Good god, I can’t believe I picked Kentucky to go 7-5. They have a linebacker returning kicks. I hate myself right now.
I am also leaning towards Georgia over 9. They have only 3 SEC road games and they are all winnable at Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Vandy. They play Florida in Jacksonville coming off of both teams bye week. I think Florida often had an advantage in this game because the Gators were coming off a bye but Georgia matched that scheduling quirk this year. This bet is not for the weak-hearted though as it is entirely possible that UGA will start the season 0-2 and have to win out to win you this bet. Their season opener against Boise State in “neutral” Atlanta might be one of the games of the year and then the Dawgs hose South Carolina the very next week. I am betting the over and hoping UGA wins one of those first 2 so that I don’t have to sweat them too hard in November.
I am going to take LSU under 9.5 They have a brutal schedule this year and they apparently forgot to schedule enough cupcakes. They start with Oregon on a neutral site, play at West Virginia, at Miss State, at Alabama, and end the season by hosting Arkansas. They have to win 3 of those 5 games and win all the games of the rest of an SEC schedule. I don’t feel good about LSU this year, especially since Jordan Jefferson is still involved.
I am also leaning towards Auburn under 6.5 Coming off the Cinderella season the road will be pretty tough for Auburn this year. We saw how far Florida fell after they lost Tebow and Auburn losing Newton should be equally horrific. They have 3 cupcakes and home games against Miss State, Florida, Ole Miss, and Alabama. Even if they manage to go 3-1 in SEC home games they have to win 1 more to go over. They play at Clemson, LSU, Arkansas, South Carolina, and Georgia. I think at best this team goes 6-6 on the season. But look on the bright side Auburn fans, you have been the 2010 National Champions 3 months longer than most people thought you would hold the crown.